415 
 WTNT42 KNHC 192033
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011
  
 BRET HAS A DISHEVELED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE PICTURES...WITH AN
 EXPOSED LOW-CLOUD CENTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF A SMALL PATCH OF
 THUNDERSTORMS.  IN SPITE OF THIS...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
 HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER ESTIMATE OF INTENSITY
 WAS NOT A GENEROUS ONE AND THE STORM IS MAINTAINING STRENGTH...FOR
 NOW.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 52 KT AND EVEN HIGHER SURFACE
 WINDS WERE SHOWN BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE AIRCRAFT.
 HOWEVER THE SFMR WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT INFLATED BY AN
 ACCOMPANYING SPIKE OF HEAVY RAIN.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
 MAINTAINED AT 45 KT.  STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
 ALONG WITH DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TOLL ON
 BRET AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION AFTER 3
 DAYS.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 035/7.  BRET IS MOVING AROUND THE
 NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AND SHOULD BE
 APPROACHING THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LATER IN THE FORECAST
 PERIOD.  DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
 CONTINUED GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME ACCELERATION
 OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF
 THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  19/2100Z 30.4N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  20/0600Z 31.1N  74.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  20/1800Z 32.4N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  21/0600Z 33.7N  71.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  21/1800Z 35.1N  69.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  22/1800Z 38.5N  65.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  96H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH