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 265 
 WTNT42 KNHC 191437
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011
  
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET THIS
 MORNING.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
 PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT RECENTLY THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN
 ON THE WANE.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPOSED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SMALL
 DENSE OVERCAST.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY A
 GENEROUS ESTIMATE.  BRET IS BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
 SHEAR AND IS ENTRAINING RATHER DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR.  THE
 ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HOSTILE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
 WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS...IF
 NOT SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ONE.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 030/7.  VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO
 THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BRET SHOULD
 CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
 SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO
 INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LATER ON.  THE FORECAST
 SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
 SPEED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...ASSUMING BRET SURVIVES THAT LONG. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  19/1500Z 29.9N  75.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  20/0000Z 30.6N  75.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  20/1200Z 31.6N  73.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  21/0000Z 32.9N  72.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  21/1200Z 34.3N  70.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  22/1200Z 37.5N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  96H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
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