350 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 030238
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014
 800 PM PDT MON JUN 02 2014
 
 The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become slightly better
 organized, with a more prominent banding feature over the eastern
 semicircle of the circulation, and water vapor imagery shows an
 upper-level outflow anticyclone becoming established over the
 depression.  Based on ship reports and a Dvorak intensity estimate
 from TAFB, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.  The tropical
 cyclone should remain in a low-shear environment, and the main
 impediments to strengthening appear to be the lack of a well-defined
 inner core and the proximity to land.  The official intensity
 forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and the previous
 official forecast.
 
 Although the center is not easy to locate, geostationary and
 microwave satellite data suggest that is a little farther north than
 the previous estimates.  The initial motion estimate is a rather
 uncertain 330 degrees at 4 kt.  Steering currents are not very
 well-defined, but the cyclone is expected to move generally
 northward in the flow on the western side of a mid-level ridge
 extending from the Caribbean Sea westward into Central America.
 The latest GFS deterministic and ensemble mean, and the HWRF model
 predictions are now in fairly good agreement that the center will be
 close to the coast in about 36 hours.  The earlier ECMWF model run
 kept the cyclone well offshore through the forecast period.  The
 ECMWF usually provides excellent guidance, but given the good
 agreement among the NCEP models it is felt that the most prudent
 course of action is to lean toward the latter models.  Therefore,
 the official forecast brings the tropical cyclone to the coast
 somewhat sooner than the previous NHC track.  This requires changing
 the tropical storm watch to a warning for the coast of Mexico.
 
 Although some strengthening of the cyclone is anticipated during
 the next day or so, the main threat from this system is likely to
 come from very heavy rains, particularly near regions of high
 terrain.  This should result in significant and dangerous flooding
 and mud slides.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0300Z 13.8N  94.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 14.3N  94.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 14.9N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z 15.4N  94.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  05/0000Z 15.8N  94.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  06/0000Z 16.1N  94.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  07/0000Z 16.2N  94.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 120H  08/0000Z 16.5N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch