424 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 020830
 TCDEP2
 HURRICANE BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008
 
 SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THE EYE OF BORIS HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED
 IN SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT BORIS LOOKS
 EVEN STRONGER WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  ALTHOUGH CURRENT
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY... 
 THE INTENSITY WILL ONLY BE BUMPED BACK UP TO 65 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.  THIS ESTIMATE IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE GIVEN THAT THE
 CYCLONE IS PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS AND MAY NOT BE EFFECTIVELY
 MIXING ITS STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE.  
  
 BORIS IS CONTINUING A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT
 ABOUT 7 KT.  THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS
 AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 
 THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN THEREAFTER...FORCING THE
 SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE
 STORM WILL ALSO LIKELY BE MUCH WEAKER IN A FEW DAYS...MEANING THE
 SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED MORE BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGING.  
 COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE...AND JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
  
 THE MORE POLEWARD TRACK OF BORIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT A RELATIVELY
 FAST DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE IT IS NO LONGER
 PARALLELING THE STRONG SST GRADIENT OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
 AND INSTEAD MOVING INTO THE COLDER WATER QUICKLY.  ALL INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM SHOULD DIMINISH IN STRENGTH
 RELATIVELY RAPIDLY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS.   IF
 BORIS DOES NOT TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST...WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE
 COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0900Z 15.9N 126.5W    65 KT
  12HR VT     02/1800Z 16.4N 127.4W    60 KT
  24HR VT     03/0600Z 16.9N 128.6W    50 KT
  36HR VT     03/1800Z 17.1N 129.7W    45 KT
  48HR VT     04/0600Z 17.1N 130.8W    40 KT
  72HR VT     05/0600Z 16.7N 133.1W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     06/0600Z 16.0N 136.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     07/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE