194 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 301428
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
 800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008
  
 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
 YESTERDAY. MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS ON
 THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5
 AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KNOTS.
 ALTHOUGH BORIS IS APPROACHING COOLER WATERS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
 TO DECREASE SO A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEAR TERM IS
 POSSIBLE. BOTH HWRF AND GFDL INSIST ON SOME STRENGTHENING BUT THE
 WEAKENING INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
 THE SHIPS MODEL.
  
 BORIS IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. DUE TO THE
 FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF
 BORIS...GLOBAL MODELS ARE WEAKENING THE STEERING CURRENTS BUT
 MAINTAIN BORIS SOUTH OF A RIDGE. THEREFORE...A WEST TO
 WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/1500Z 14.8N 120.9W    55 KT
  12HR VT     01/0000Z 14.7N 122.0W    60 KT
  24HR VT     01/1200Z 14.6N 123.5W    55 KT
  36HR VT     02/0000Z 14.6N 124.8W    45 KT
  48HR VT     02/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W    40 KT
  72HR VT     03/1200Z 14.5N 128.0W    35 KT
  96HR VT     04/1200Z 14.5N 129.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     05/1200Z 14.5N 130.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
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