109 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 300829
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
 200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008
  
 BORIS' OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
 AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KT.  
 WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL FOR
 INTENSIFICATION...BORIS STILL HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE
 WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  INTERESTINGLY...THE STATISTICAL-
 DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS...SHIPS AND LGEM...SHOW LITTLE OR NO
 STRENGTHENING WHILE THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS...HWRF AND
 GFDL...BOTH SHOW BORIS INTENSIFYING TO NEAR 80 KT.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING
 LATER TODAY.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
 GRADUAL WEAKENING AS BORIS BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A
 MORE STABLE AIR MASS. 
  
 BORIS REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS
 KEEPING THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING...275/11.  THIS
 OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
 SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE
 UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE POSSIBLE
 DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CURRENTLY EAST OF
 BORIS.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS NO LONGER
 ABRUPTLY TURN THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST.  RATHER...THEY
 ESSENTIALLY SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING STATIONARY BEYOND 72 HOURS. 
 THIS RESULTS IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BEING A LITTLE NORTH AND A
 LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO NUDGED IN
 THIS DIRECTION. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0900Z 14.9N 119.4W    60 KT
  12HR VT     30/1800Z 15.0N 120.8W    65 KT
  24HR VT     01/0600Z 15.0N 122.3W    60 KT
  36HR VT     01/1800Z 14.9N 123.8W    55 KT
  48HR VT     02/0600Z 14.7N 125.1W    50 KT
  72HR VT     03/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W    40 KT
  96HR VT     04/0600Z 14.5N 127.5W    35 KT
 120HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 129.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER RHOME
  
 
 
 342 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 300829
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
 200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008
 
 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTINA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
 OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE IS A RATHER SHARP EDGE TO THE
 HIGH CLOUD MASS OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...INDICATIVE OF
 EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS SHEAR IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO
 THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM BORIS LOCATED NOT FAR
 TO CRISTINA'S EAST.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS USING A SHEAR PATTERN
 MEASUREMENT ARE YIELDING INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT.  HOWEVER THE
 DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AS WELL AS
 EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA...ARGUE FOR A SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEED. 
 THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. 
 THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES...AND A RELATIVELY STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS
 LIKELY TO RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING AND THIS IS SHOWN IN THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE SHIPS PREDICTION... AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS
 INTENSITY FORECAST...ICON.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 260/9.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
 LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN CRISTINA AND BORIS...IN TERMS OF
 STEERING.  THEREFORE THE PRINCIPAL STEERING MECHANISM IS THE
 EASTERLY CURRENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  A
 CONTINUED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
 SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS AND FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 PACKAGE. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0900Z 14.2N 129.9W    40 KT
  12HR VT     30/1800Z 13.9N 131.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     01/0600Z 13.6N 133.9W    35 KT
  36HR VT     01/1800Z 13.5N 136.0W    30 KT
  48HR VT     02/0600Z 13.5N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     03/0600Z 13.5N 141.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     04/0600Z 13.5N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     05/0600Z 13.5N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH