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 990 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 291429
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008
  
 MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF BORIS IS LOCATED
 ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO SHEAR.  THE OUTFLOW
 APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS...BUT
 CONVECTION REMAINS ASYMMETRIC. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SO
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
 INDICATE THAT A LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
 DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
 PREVAILING FLOW.  IN FACT...THE GFS ABSORBS BORIS INTO THE NEW
 DISTURBANCE. THIS WOULD DISCOURAGE TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN
 INTENSITY. IN ADDITION...SHIPS MODEL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BORIS MAINLY
 DUE TO DRY STABLE AIR APPROACHING THE CYCLONE. ONLY THE GFDL AND
 HWFR MODELS STRENGTHEN BORIS IN THE NEAR TERM BUT THEN WEAKEN IT
 THEREAFTER.  THEREFORE...THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO
 GRADUALLY WEAKEN BORIS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING
 CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW
 DISTURBANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION WITH
 A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  BY DAY 3...BORIS SHOULD BE A
 REMNANT LOW MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO PROVIDED BY
 MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH...SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE
 BEGINNING TO FORECAST AN EASTWARD TURN ASSUMING THAT BORIS WILL
 BECOME ABSORBED BY THE NEW DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/1500Z 15.0N 116.2W    45 KT
  12HR VT     30/0000Z 15.0N 117.5W    40 KT
  24HR VT     30/1200Z 15.0N 119.0W    35 KT
  36HR VT     01/0000Z 15.0N 120.5W    30 KT
  48HR VT     01/1200Z 15.0N 122.0W    25 KT
  72HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N 124.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N 126.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     04/1200Z 15.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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