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 258 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 281438
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
 800 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008
  
 OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF BORIS IS PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF A
 CONVECTIVE MASS WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  THIS IS DUE TO
 INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
 IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. 
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 45 KT...AND
 THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW REMAINS
 FAIR TO GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED
 ELSEWHERE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11...SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY.  THE
 LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
 RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF BORIS THROUGH THE FORECAST
 PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...
 THE MODEL TRACK FORECASTS FOR BORIS SHOW SOME SPREAD DUE TO
 INTERACTION WITH OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES BOTH REAL...TROPICAL STORM
 CRISTINA...AND POTENTIAL...THE LARGE BUT WEAK DISTURBANCE EAST OF
 BORIS.  AT THIS TIME...BORIS AND CRISTINA APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR
 APART FOR SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION.  ALSO...THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE
 APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO CAUSE BORIS TO MOVE EASTWARD NEAR THE END
 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.  BASED ON THIS...
 THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION UNDER
 THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE NEW TRACK IS A BIT FASTER THAN
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
 MODELS.
 
 WITH THE SHEAR INCREASING...IT APPEARS THAT BORIS HAS REACHED PEAK
 INTENSITY.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO PERSIST
 FOR 36-72 HR BEFORE DECREASING...AND BY THAT TIME BORIS WILL BE
 MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  BASED ON THIS...THE
 CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR 24
 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
 WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF
 MODELS BOTH FORECAST BORIS TO BECOME A HURRICANE...WHICH LOOKS
 UNLIKELY AT THE MOMENT.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      28/1500Z 14.5N 113.0W    45 KT
  12HR VT     29/0000Z 14.6N 114.3W    45 KT
  24HR VT     29/1200Z 14.8N 115.9W    45 KT
  36HR VT     30/0000Z 14.9N 117.5W    40 KT
  48HR VT     30/1200Z 15.0N 119.1W    40 KT
  72HR VT     01/1200Z 15.0N 122.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N 126.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N 128.5W    25 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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