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 627 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 272037
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
 200 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008
 
 BORIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP
 TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -80C...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE
 NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR
 THIS ADVISORY.  DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 13Z SHOWS THAT
 BORIS HAS A BROAD INNER CIRCULATION...WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS
 LOCATED ABOUT 60-75 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW
 REMAINS GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.  
 
 BORIS HAS JOGGED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
 INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/8.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE FORECAST
 TRACK BEING SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT
 OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. 
 BORIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/
 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48
 HR WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST
 TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN BEST
 OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK
 OF BORIS COULD BE INFLUENCED BY INTERACTION WITH OTHER TROPICAL
 CYCLONE...THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E TO THE
 WEST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ANOTHER CYCLONE FORECAST BY
 THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS EAST OF BORIS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE
 FORECAST TRACK CURRENTLY DOES NOT TAKE THESE POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS
 INTO ACCOUNT.
  
 BORIS IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
 EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL
 TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
 SHEAR...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING AN EARLIER ONSET
 AND LONGER DURATION OF THE SHEAR THAN IN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.  THIS
 IS LIKELY TO HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON BORIS THAN PREVIOUSLY
 FORECAST.  BASED ON THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND...THE NEW
 INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR BORIS TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
 60 KT BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES.  AFTER 24-36 HR...BORIS SHOULD
 GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SHEAR AND SLOWLY
 DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/2100Z 13.3N 109.8W    45 KT
  12HR VT     28/0600Z 13.7N 110.8W    55 KT
  24HR VT     28/1800Z 14.0N 112.4W    60 KT
  36HR VT     29/0600Z 14.2N 114.0W    60 KT
  48HR VT     29/1800Z 14.2N 115.5W    55 KT
  72HR VT     30/1800Z 14.0N 118.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     01/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W    40 KT
 120HR VT     02/1800Z 14.0N 124.5W    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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