356 
 WTNT42 KNHC 040233
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
 1100 PM AST FRI JUN 03 2016
 
 After the burst of deep convection noted earlier today,
 thunderstorm activity associated with Bonnie has diminished
 considerably with the only remaining convection occurring over a
 small area in the southeast quadrant of the circulation.  The
 maximum wind speed is kept at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak
 Current Intensity number from TAFB.  Given the current lack of deep
 convection, this intensity estimate may be generous.  Since the
 system will be traversing cool waters of near 22 deg C and vertical
 shear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt over the next 24-48
 hours, Bonnie is predicted to gradually weaken and soon become a
 remnant low. Global models show the cyclone becoming absorbed by
 another low over the north Atlantic in 48 to 72 hours.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 090/10.  Bonnie is moving along the
 northern side of a subtropical ridge and the southern edge of the
 mid-latitude westerlies, and this steering regime should continue
 for the next couple of days.  The track model guidance is in
 general agreement on a continued eastward motion with some
 acceleration over the next 48 hours.  The official track forecast
 is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF output and similar to the
 previous NHC track.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/0300Z 35.9N  69.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  04/1200Z 35.7N  67.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  05/0000Z 35.4N  64.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  05/1200Z 34.8N  60.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  06/0000Z 34.3N  56.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch