165 
 WTNT42 KNHC 281447
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
 1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
 
 Satellite and NOAA WSR-88D radar data indicate that deep convection
 has increased in the northern semicircle of the depression's
 circulation since the previous advisory. However, the depression
 remains a sheared tropical cyclone due to southeasterly upper-level
 winds of 20-25 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
 investigated the cyclone this morning and obtained reliable SFMR
 surface winds of at least 30 kt.  Satellite intensity estimates
 were also T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the intensity is
 being maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.
 
 Microwave satellite and recon fix positions indicate that the
 cyclone has made a jog toward the west-northwest during the past six
 hours. However, smoothing through these short-term wobbles yields a
 12-hour motion of 310/11 kt. The ECMWF and GFS models actually did
 quite well in predicting this recent short-term wobble, and both
 models turn the depression more toward the right, accompanied by
 a steady decrease in forward speed over the next 24 hours as the
 cyclone nears the South Carolina coast. As a result, the new NHC
 forecast track lies slightly to the left of the previous advisory
 track through 12 hours, primarily to account for the more westward
 initial position, and then is near the previous track and a blend
 of the GFS-ECMWF model consensus track at 24 hours and beyond.
 
 The depression is beginning to move over the eastern wall of the
 Gulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are 27-28 deg C. Outer
 convective bands have also developed over the slightly cooler shelf
 waters between the South Carolina coast and the Gulf Stream, which
 implies that there might not be as much of a weakening effect by
 those cooler waters as previously anticipated. However, southerly
 vertical wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to increase to
 more than 20 kt before the cyclone reaches the coast, and that is
 expected to inhibit any significant strengthening. It is possible
 that the cyclone could peak at around 40 kt while it is over the
 Gulf Stream this afternoon and evening, followed by slight weakening
 just before it reaches the coast. The official intensity forecast is
 similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the Decay-SHIPS
 intensity model.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/1500Z 30.3N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  29/0000Z 31.3N  79.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  29/1200Z 32.4N  80.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  30/0000Z 32.7N  80.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  48H  30/1200Z 33.0N  79.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  72H  31/1200Z 33.6N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/1200Z 34.4N  76.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  02/1200Z 34.9N  75.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart