893 
 WTNT43 KNHC 240847
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
 400 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
  
 DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF BONNIE AROUND 0400
 UTC. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
 CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LAST PASS THROUGH BONNIE FROM AN AIR FORCE
 RESERVE AIRCRAFT THAT DEPARTED THE DEPRESSION AROUND 0600 UTC FOUND
 MAXIMUM 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE
 OF 1013 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING BONNIE AS A 30-KT
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE AND
 SHOULD BE IN THE CENTER VERY SHORTLY.
 
 BONNIE HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH AN
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/15.  BONNIE REMAINS IN A WELL
 ESTABLISHED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER
 THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
 GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
 DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND BONNIE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
 NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS
 EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE AROUND THE WESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE PRIOR TO BONNIE
 REACHING THE COAST AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
 SHOWS INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP
 THE POSSIBILITY OF RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
 BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT REMAINS POSSIBLE
 IS FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH TODAY.  THAT SCENARIO
 IS SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0900Z 27.0N  85.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     24/1800Z 28.0N  87.3W    35 KT
  24HR VT     25/0600Z 29.4N  89.7W    35 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     25/1800Z 30.8N  91.4W    25 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     26/0600Z 32.1N  92.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72HR VT     27/0600Z 35.0N  93.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI