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 572 
 WTNT43 KNHC 240235
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
 1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
  
 BONNIE IS CURRENTLY COMPRISED OF A CONVECTIONLESS SWIRL OF LOW
 CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.  AN AIR FORCE
 RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM HAS
 FOUND WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT IS
 HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  THE
 AIRCRAFT DATA DOES SHOW A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH A CENTRAL
 PRESSURE OF 1010 MB.  BASED ON THIS CONFLICTING INFORMATION...
 BONNIE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
  
 THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
 HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 295/15.  BONNIE REMAINS ON THE
 SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
 STATES AND EAST OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
 WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS COMBINATION IS FORECAST TO STEER
 THE STORM TO A LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  ALL THE
 TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE MODELS
 CLUSTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
 COASTS.  AFTER LANDFALL...BONNIE OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN
 NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE
 RIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT BASED UPON
 THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
 CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 BONNIE REMAINS IN A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
 SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...CONFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...
 AND UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE.  MOST OF THE
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY SHOWING WEAKENING OR
 DISSIPATION BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOWING
 ANY INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
 PREMISE THAT ENOUGH CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP TO CAUSE SLIGHT
 STRENGTHENING BEFORE BONNIE REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  AN
 INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
 DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW OR OPEN TROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY DUE TO A
 LACK OF CONVECTION.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0300Z 26.4N  83.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     24/1200Z 27.7N  85.7W    30 KT
  24HR VT     25/0000Z 29.2N  88.5W    35 KT
  36HR VT     25/1200Z 30.5N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     26/0000Z 31.4N  91.8W    25 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     27/0000Z 34.0N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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