788 
 WTNT43 KNHC 231450
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
  
 BONNIE IS NOT A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. DUE TO STRONG
 SHEAR...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
 THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WHICH IS ALREADY OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.
 LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS TRAILING THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE AND
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEARBY INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW RAINBANDS
 MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  BONNIE WILL BE MOVING
 OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WHERE THE CIRCULATION COULD BECOME EVEN
 MORE DISRUPTED. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT
 FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...GLOBAL
 AND HURRICANE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON WEAKENING OR EVEN
 DISSIPATING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY. BONNIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A
 TROPICAL WAVE AS IT CROSSES FLORIDA BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
 SHOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWING
 THE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
  
 BONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING CURRENTS
 ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
 UNITED STATES AND THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
 MEXICO. BONNIE IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300
 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS...AND BECAUSE THE PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
 CHANGE MUCH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
 WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 36 HOURS. MOST OF
 THE TRACK GUIDANCE...OR SHOULD I SAY...THE MODELS THAT DO NOT WEAKEN
 THE CYCLONE...SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
 NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN
 THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL SPREAD.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/1500Z 25.4N  80.3W    35 KT
  12HR VT     24/0000Z 26.2N  83.0W    35 KT
  24HR VT     24/1200Z 27.5N  86.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     25/0000Z 29.0N  88.5W    45 KT
  48HR VT     25/1200Z 30.5N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     26/1200Z 33.0N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS