193 
 WTNT42 KNHC 110854
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
  
 LATEST RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS NOT CHANGED
 MUCH.  THE PRESSURE WAS DOWN A BIT...1001 MB...AND THE PEAK FLIGHT
 LEVEL WINDS WERE 44 KT.  A DROPSONDE REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 41
 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS
 40 KT.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS BUT
 HAS BEEN INCREASING MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND THE
 AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED THAT BONNIE HAS A PARTIAL EYEWALL AGAIN. 
 BONNIE WILL BE PASSING OVER VERY WARM WATER AND HAS ANOTHER 12
 HOURS OR SO UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS...SO THERE IS STILL AN
 OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT QUITE A BIT LESS THAN THE
 GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE BONNIE A HURRICANE.  AS BONNIE
 APPROACHES THE COASTLINE...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BE
 A LIMITING FACTOR ON INTENSIFICATION.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 000/4.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
 FORECAST TRACK OR SYNOPTIC REASONING.  DATA FROM THE G-IV JET
 MISSION LAST NIGHT SHOW MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS ABOUT TO SCOOP
 BONNIE UP.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD
 TRACK THAT SHOULD TAKE BONNIE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITHIN 30-36
 HOURS.  
 
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/0900Z 25.5N  90.5W    40 KT
  12HR VT     11/1800Z 26.7N  89.7W    45 KT
  24HR VT     12/0600Z 28.6N  88.0W    50 KT
  36HR VT     12/1800Z 31.0N  85.0W    35 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     13/0600Z 34.0N  81.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     14/0600Z 43.0N  72.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     15/0600Z...ABSORBED
  
  
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