562 
 WTNT42 KNHC 042033
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004
  
 WE GAVE THE DEPRESSION THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT THIS MORNING WHEN
 THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COULDN'T CLOSE OFF A CENTER. THIS
 AFTERNOON THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME ELONGATED EAST-WEST AND LESS
 CONCENTRATED...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THE SYSTEM HAS
 RE-DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION.  GIVEN THE LACK OF A CENTER
 THIS MORNING AND THE OBSERVED CONVECTIVE TRENDS SINCE THEN...
 ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.
  
 MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING.  THE GFDL...WHICH
 EARLIER STRENGTHENED THE DEPRESSION AND TOOK IT NORTHWEST AND THEN
 NORTH...NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM WEST AND DISSIPATES IT.  THE GFS ALSO
 NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE MAJOR THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM
 WOULD BE IF IT MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING RAINFALL TO
 HISPANIOLA.
 
 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
 THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/2100Z 13.5N  63.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
  12HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
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