566 
 WTNT42 KNHC 040259
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004
  
 DIFFICULTY REMAINS IN DETERMINING THE CENTER POSITION OF THE
 DEPRESSION. MICROWAVE DATA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT THE
 LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES HAVE BEEN BEEN INDICATING. THE
 ADVISORY POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
 TRACK POSITIONS AND THE MICROWAVE POSITIONS...AND CLOSE TO WHERE
 THE LATEST BURST OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING. AS MENTIONED IN
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...IF THERE IS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
 ...THEN IT IS LIKELY A VERY SMALL AND TIGHT CIRCULATION AS
 SUGGESTED BY THE WEAK WINDS BEING REPORTED AT NEARBY BARBADOS. A
 RECON FLIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE US SOME ANSWERS. THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON CONSECUTIVE
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND
 SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND SOME 25 TO NEAR 30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND
 SPEEDS IN A 03/2208Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/19...BUT THE CYCLONE MAY BE
 MOVING CLOSER TO 270 DEGREES. HOWEVER...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
 REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
 AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
 SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS
 SHOULD EFFECTIVELY ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
 HISPANIOLA AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN
 NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 
 FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORIES AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY
 MODELS...WHICH BRING THE CYCLONE UP TO 51 KT AND 57 KT IN 48 HOURS
 ...RESPECTIVELY...WHEN THE CYCLONE IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
 THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
  
 GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION...IT IS
 POSSIBLE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY NOT EXIST.
 HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN STILL OCCUR AT HIGHER
 ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1000 FEET.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/0300Z 13.6N  58.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     04/1200Z 14.2N  61.1W    35 KT
  24HR VT     05/0000Z 15.3N  64.3W    40 KT
  36HR VT     05/1200Z 16.7N  67.0W    45 KT
  48HR VT     06/0000Z 18.3N  69.0W    55 KT
  72HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N  71.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     08/0000Z 27.0N  70.5W    70 KT
 120HR VT     09/0000Z 30.5N  70.0W    70 KT
  
  
 $$