590 
 WTNT42 KNHC 031510
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004
 
 SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL
 ATLANTIC APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
 ORGANIZED AND IT IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT
 IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF THE SYSTEM...AN ESPECIALLY FAST MOVING
 ONE...HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITHOUT DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
 PLANE. YOU COULD MAKE THE CASE THAT A SMALL CIRCULATION EXISTS
 USING QUICKSAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS. THE DEPRESSION HAS ENOUGH DEEP
 CONVECTION...BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW AND THE SHEAR IS
 EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL
 STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH SHIPS AND
 GFDL MODELS. 
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS...
 STEERED BY THE WINDS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...
 LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COAST
 OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 FORCING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE
 LAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST.     
 
 PRELIMINARY COORDINATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THE METEOROLOGISTS
 FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO ISSUE WATCHES AND WARNINGS LATER TODAY
 IF NECESSARY.
   
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/1500Z 13.2N  54.2W    25 KT
  12HR VT     04/0000Z 14.0N  57.0W    35 KT
  24HR VT     04/1200Z 15.0N  60.5W    40 KT
  36HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N  64.0W    45 KT
  48HR VT     05/1200Z 18.0N  67.0W    50 KT
  72HR VT     06/1200Z 21.0N  69.5W    60 KT
  96HR VT     07/1200Z 25.5N  71.0W    70 KT
 120HR VT     08/1200Z 30.0N  72.0W    70 KT
  
  
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