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 005 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 091449
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016
 
 Satellite images indicate that Blas continues to weaken.  The
 associated deep convection has been shrinking in coverage and
 gradually losing organization during the last several hours.
 Accordingly, the Dvorak T-numbers are falling and a blend of the
 latest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at
 the University of Wisconsin suggest that the initial intensity has
 decreased to near 50 kt.  Blas is currently over cool 24 C waters
 and embedded in a fairly stable air mass.  These unfavorable
 conditions combined with a notable increase in southwesterly wind
 shear during the next couple of days should allow the weakening
 trend to continue.  Blas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant
 low in 24 to 36 hours and dissipate in 4 to 5 days.
 
 The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt located
 on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over
 northwestern Mexico.  A gradual turn to the west is expected over
 the next day or two while the cyclone becomes shallower and is
 steered by the low-level trade wind flow.  The NHC track forecast is
 largely an update of the previous one and lies closest to the
 consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/1500Z 20.1N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  10/0000Z 20.8N 133.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  10/1200Z 21.3N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  11/0000Z 21.5N 137.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  11/1200Z 21.2N 139.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  12/1200Z 20.5N 144.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  13/1200Z 19.8N 148.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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