005
WTPZ43 KNHC 091449
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016
Satellite images indicate that Blas continues to weaken. The
associated deep convection has been shrinking in coverage and
gradually losing organization during the last several hours.
Accordingly, the Dvorak T-numbers are falling and a blend of the
latest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at
the University of Wisconsin suggest that the initial intensity has
decreased to near 50 kt. Blas is currently over cool 24 C waters
and embedded in a fairly stable air mass. These unfavorable
conditions combined with a notable increase in southwesterly wind
shear during the next couple of days should allow the weakening
trend to continue. Blas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant
low in 24 to 36 hours and dissipate in 4 to 5 days.
The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt located
on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over
northwestern Mexico. A gradual turn to the west is expected over
the next day or two while the cyclone becomes shallower and is
steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and lies closest to the
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 20.1N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 20.8N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 21.3N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 21.5N 137.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1200Z 21.2N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 20.5N 144.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z 19.8N 148.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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