624 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 082034
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016
 
 Cool waters are taking a toll on Blas.  The satellite presentation
 of the hurricane has degraded since this morning as the convective
 cloud tops have warmed and steadily decreased in coverage. Dvorak
 intensity estimates continue to decrease and the initial wind speed
 has been reduced to 75 kt, which is blend of the latest subjective
 T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  The hurricane should continue
 to quickly weaken while it moves over water below 24C and into a
 more stable environment during the next several days.  The latest
 intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance, and calls
 for Blas to weaken to a tropical storm tonight, and become a
 post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours.
 
 Recent center fixes show that Blas has turned northwestward.  The
 cyclone should continue moving northwestward during the next day or
 so into a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large mid-
 to upper-level low to the northeast of Hawaii.  By Sunday, the
 post-tropical cyclone is forecast to turn back westward in the
 low-level easterly flow.  The guidance is in good agreement on this
 scenario and the updated track forecast is essentially an update of
 the previous NHC advisory.
 
 The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ASCAT
 pass.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/2100Z 18.5N 130.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  09/0600Z 19.7N 131.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  09/1800Z 21.0N 132.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  10/0600Z 21.8N 134.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  48H  10/1800Z 22.0N 136.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  11/1800Z 21.5N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  12/1800Z 20.5N 144.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown