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 547 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 062034
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
 200 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016
 
 Blas has a very impressive satellite presentation this afternoon.
 The hurricane has a large, distinct eye in visible satellite
 images that is surrounded by a very symmetric ring of deep
 convection.  Dvorak T-numbers are virtually unchanged since this
 morning so the initial intensity of 110 kt has been maintained.
 The hurricane is expected to begin to weaken tonight as it moves
 over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures.  Blas should
 cross the 26C isotherm in about 24 hours, which is expected to cause
 a faster rate of decay.  The cyclone is forecast to become
 post-tropical in about 96 hours, and weaken to a remnant low by day
 5.  The NHC intensity forecast is between the SHIPS and LGEM
 guidance and close to the multi-model intensity consensus.
 
 The initial motion remains 285/10 kt. Blas should continue moving
 west-northwestward during the next day or so while it moves around
 the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico.
 After that time, the hurricane is expected to turn northwestward
 between the western portion of the ridge and a large mid- to
 upper-level low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The
 spread of the guidance remains fairly large at 72 hours and beyond,
 however, the models have moved a little closer together with the
 GFS-based guidance shifting southward while the ECMWF has nudged
 northward.  As a result, little change has been made to the NHC
 track prediction, which lies closest to the GFS/ECMWF (GFEX)
 consensus aid.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/2100Z 15.2N 124.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  07/0600Z 15.7N 126.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  07/1800Z 16.2N 127.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  08/0600Z 17.0N 129.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  08/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  09/1800Z 20.2N 134.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  10/1800Z 21.8N 137.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  11/1800Z 22.5N 141.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
 
 548 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 062034
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
 300 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016
 
 Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area located well
 southwest of the coast of Mexico now has a well-defined circulation
 and sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical
 depression.  Thus, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression
 Four-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt.
 
 The depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 7 kt.  A weak
 low- to mid-level ridge should steer the cyclone westward at a
 less than climatological forward speed for the next 3-4 days,
 followed by a west-northwestward motion by day 5.  The track
 forecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the
 track forecast is in the center of the guidance envelope.
 
 The dynamical models forecast that the cyclone will be in an
 environment of light vertical wind shear for the next five days.
 However, it is forecast to cross an area of cooler water, possibly a
 cold wake left by Hurricane Blas, during the next 72 hours.  This is
 expected to allow only slow intensification during that time.
 Subsequently, the cyclone should move over warmer water and
 strengthen at a faster rate.  The intensity forecast is in best
 agreement with the SHIPS model, and it calls for the cyclone to
 become a tropical storm in about 24 hours and a hurricane in about
 96 hours.  An alternative scenario is that the cyclone strengthens
 faster than currently forecast due to the conducive shear
 environment.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/2100Z 12.2N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  07/0600Z 12.3N 110.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  07/1800Z 12.3N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  08/0600Z 12.5N 112.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  08/1800Z 12.5N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  09/1800Z 12.5N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  10/1800Z 13.0N 120.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  11/1800Z 14.5N 123.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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