547
WTPZ43 KNHC 062034
TCDEP3
HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
200 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016
Blas has a very impressive satellite presentation this afternoon.
The hurricane has a large, distinct eye in visible satellite
images that is surrounded by a very symmetric ring of deep
convection. Dvorak T-numbers are virtually unchanged since this
morning so the initial intensity of 110 kt has been maintained.
The hurricane is expected to begin to weaken tonight as it moves
over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures. Blas should
cross the 26C isotherm in about 24 hours, which is expected to cause
a faster rate of decay. The cyclone is forecast to become
post-tropical in about 96 hours, and weaken to a remnant low by day
5. The NHC intensity forecast is between the SHIPS and LGEM
guidance and close to the multi-model intensity consensus.
The initial motion remains 285/10 kt. Blas should continue moving
west-northwestward during the next day or so while it moves around
the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico.
After that time, the hurricane is expected to turn northwestward
between the western portion of the ridge and a large mid- to
upper-level low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The
spread of the guidance remains fairly large at 72 hours and beyond,
however, the models have moved a little closer together with the
GFS-based guidance shifting southward while the ECMWF has nudged
northward. As a result, little change has been made to the NHC
track prediction, which lies closest to the GFS/ECMWF (GFEX)
consensus aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 15.2N 124.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 15.7N 126.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 16.2N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 17.0N 129.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 20.2N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 21.8N 137.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 11/1800Z 22.5N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Brown
548
WTPZ44 KNHC 062034
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
300 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016
Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area located well
southwest of the coast of Mexico now has a well-defined circulation
and sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical
depression. Thus, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression
Four-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt.
The depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 7 kt. A weak
low- to mid-level ridge should steer the cyclone westward at a
less than climatological forward speed for the next 3-4 days,
followed by a west-northwestward motion by day 5. The track
forecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the
track forecast is in the center of the guidance envelope.
The dynamical models forecast that the cyclone will be in an
environment of light vertical wind shear for the next five days.
However, it is forecast to cross an area of cooler water, possibly a
cold wake left by Hurricane Blas, during the next 72 hours. This is
expected to allow only slow intensification during that time.
Subsequently, the cyclone should move over warmer water and
strengthen at a faster rate. The intensity forecast is in best
agreement with the SHIPS model, and it calls for the cyclone to
become a tropical storm in about 24 hours and a hurricane in about
96 hours. An alternative scenario is that the cyclone strengthens
faster than currently forecast due to the conducive shear
environment.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 12.2N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 12.3N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.3N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 12.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 12.5N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 12.5N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 13.0N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 14.5N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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