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 863 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 050234
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
 800 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016
 
 Blas is gradually gaining strength.  A ragged eye has been
 occasionally evident in geostationary satellite images and the
 inner core of the hurricane appears a little better organized than
 it was earlier today.  In fact, a recent SSMIS microwave overpass
 showed an eye feature within the symmetric CDO.  The latest
 Dvorak classifications and ADT values from CIMSS at the University
 of Wisconsin support raising the initial intensity to 75 kt.
 
 The hurricane is expected to remain in conducive environmental
 conditions for strengthening for another 36 hours as the wind shear
 is expected to be less than 10 kt with sufficiently warm water and a
 considerable amount of moisture. The official NHC intensity forecast
 remains at the upper end of the guidance during that time and calls
 for Blas to reach major hurricane status. In about two days,
 however, the system is forecast to move over sea surface
 temperatures of around 26 C and into a more stable air mass, which
 should end the strengthening phase and promote a steady weakening
 trend. Blas is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the
 end of the period when it is forecast to be over sea surface
 temperatures near 24 C.
 
 Blas continues to move west-northwestward at about 12 kt on the
 south side of a sprawling mid-level ridge over Mexico and the
 eastern Pacific Ocean.  The models are in very good agreement
 in showing a continued west-northwestward motion during the next 3
 to 4 days while the ridge remains the primary steering mechanism.
 There is some divergence in the model solutions by the end of the
 forecast period, with the GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models showing a more
 northern track while the ECMWF and HWRF models have a track farther
 south.  This spread is associated with differences in how much Blas
 interacts with a cut off low north of the Hawaiian Islands.  The NHC
 track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and
 is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0300Z 14.0N 116.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 14.4N 118.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 14.9N 121.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 15.3N 123.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  07/0000Z 15.8N 125.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  08/0000Z 17.1N 129.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  09/0000Z 18.9N 132.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  10/0000Z 20.7N 135.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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