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 143 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 031439
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
 900 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016
 
 Satellite imagery indicates a marked increase in organization of the
 Blas' cloud pattern overnight, suggesting that the cyclone is
 quickly intensifying.  The center is located underneath a ball of
 deep convection, the latter which appears to be a formative central
 dense overcast.  The large-envelope cyclone also has a lengthening
 band that consists of very cold-topped convection in the shape of a
 figure six. Satellite classifications are T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt
 from SAB and TAFB at 1200 UTC, respectively.  The initial intensity
 is raised to 50 kt, based on a blend of the two intensity estimates.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 285/11.  Blas is forecast to move
 along the southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge
 centered over northern Mexico throughout the forecast period, which
 should keep the cyclone on a general west-northwesterly course.  The
 model guidance is in very good agreement through 72 hours, but
 diverges after that time.  The GFS and its ensemble mean lie near
 the previous forecast and is on the northern side of the guidance
 envelope, while the ECMWF and its ensemble mean are much farther
 south.  The differences between the two models appear related to
 subtle variations in the strength and position of the subtropical
 ridge forecast after day 3.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted a
 bit south of the previous one, on the southern side of the guidance
 envelope through 72 hours and near the multi-model consensus after
 that time.
 
 There does not appear to be anything obvious on the large-scale to
 impede intensification over the next few days, except that the
 cyclone will be very gradually departing the warmest waters over the
 basin.  The light-easterly-shear, moist environment and warm waters
 should allow Blas to strengthen into a major hurricane as indicated
 in about 48 hours.  The official NHC forecast through that time is
 heavily weighted toward the statistical guidance which is performing
 well, considering the current developmental trend.  By 96 hours,
 even though the shear is forecast to remain low, the cyclone should
 be moving over steadily cooler waters and entering a drier and more
 stable environment.  This should foster a weakening trend, though
 the weakening will likely occur only gradually.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/1500Z 11.6N 110.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  04/0000Z 12.1N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  04/1200Z 12.6N 114.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  05/0000Z 13.1N 116.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  05/1200Z 13.6N 118.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  06/1200Z 14.6N 123.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  07/1200Z 16.0N 127.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 120H  08/1200Z 17.3N 131.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain
 
 
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