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 095 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 030858
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016
 
 Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that a long
 curved band of convection now wraps at least half way around the
 low-level center. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have
 increased as result, with TAFB coming in at T2.5/35 kt and SAB at
 T3.0/45 kt. Therefore, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical
 Storm Blas.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 285/12, based heavily on microwave
 fix positions. Overall, there is no significant change to the
 previous forecast track or reasoning. Blas is expected to move
 along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge
 located over northern Mexico and the southern United States.  This
 stable steering pattern should keep Blas moving in a general
 westward to west-northwestward direction for the next 120 hours.
 The NHC track forecast is slightly north of the previous forecast
 track, and closely follows the consensus track model TVCE.
 
 Environmental conditions appear favorable for steady strengthening
 during the next 72 hours as Blas moves over SSTs of 29-30C and
 encounters decreasing vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt. The
 new NHC intensity forecast shows Blas becoming a hurricane on Monday
 and a major hurricane by Wednesday. Gradual weakening is expected to
 begin by 96 hours or so as the cyclone starts to move over 26C or
 cooler seas-surface temperatures, which should result in some cold
 upwelling or mixing beneath Blas. The official forecast is above the
 intensity consensus IVCN, and close to the previous intensity
 forecast and a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0900Z 11.7N 109.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  03/1800Z 12.0N 111.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  04/0600Z 12.6N 113.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  04/1800Z 13.1N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  05/0600Z 13.6N 117.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  06/0600Z 14.6N 122.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
  96H  07/0600Z 15.8N 126.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 120H  08/0600Z 17.3N 130.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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