749 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 201002
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12...CORRECTED
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010
 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010
 
 CORRECTED TO INDICATE 48 HOUR POSITION AS POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LARGE MASS OF DEEP
 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BLAS HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY IN
 INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE OVERALL
 CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS ALSO BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC AND A 0355 UTC
 TRMM PASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS SLIGHTLY MORE REMOVED FROM
 THE CONVECTION THAN IT WAS EARLIER. BASED UPON ITS CURRENT
 APPEARANCE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR
 THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATE OF FROM TAFB AND WITH RECENT CIMSS AODT VALUES BETWEEN 2.5
 AND 3.0. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE SHOULD BE
 A REDUCTION IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER BLAS DURING THE NEXT
 24-48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
 LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTERING A MORE STABLE
 ATMOSPHERE. THE ABOVE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD OVERWHELM ANY
 POSITIVE EFFECT FROM THE LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RESULT IN A
 CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED UPON
 CURRENT TRENDS...AND BLAS IS FORECAST TO BECOME
 REMNANT LOW WITHIN 2 DAYS.
  
 THE ABOVE TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT BLAS MAY BE MOVING SLIGHTLY RIGHT
 OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW
 290/08. MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH
 CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL EAST
 PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO STEER BLAS ON WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
 COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE
 WEAKENS FURTHER AND BECOMES MORE SHALLOW...IT SHOULD BE GUIDED
 WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL
 DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
 NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL MOTION.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0900Z 17.5N 112.3W    40 KT
  12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.7N 113.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 115.7W    30 KT
  36HR VT     21/1800Z 18.1N 117.6W    25 KT
  48HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 119.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72HR VT     23/0600Z 17.2N 123.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN