417 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 140824
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT WED JUL 14 2004
  
 BLAS IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN OVER 24C WATER AND THERE IS CURRENTLY
 VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION LEFT.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KT FROM THE THREE AGENCIES.  SHIP
 ELYS4 AT 06Z REPORTED 35 KT ABOUT 100 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND THE
 QUIKSCAT PASS AT 02Z SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KT.  A
 PAIR OF SHIP REPORTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE
 CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FROM THE CENTER
 IN THE LARGE-SCALE BAND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
 ALTHOUGH STEADY WEAKENING IS CALLED FOR AS BLAS MOVES OVER
 PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...THE LARGE CIRCULATION WILL BE SLOW TO
 DISSIPATE.
  
 THE FORWARD SPEED OF BLAS APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED SOMEWHAT...AND THE
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/16.  THE STORM IS BEING
 STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
 MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
 REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
 ADDITIONAL SLOWING OF THE STEERING WINDS AS BLAS NEARS THE WESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  A MORE WESTWARD STEERING BY THE LOW-LEVEL
 TRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
 IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 EVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING...THE OUTER BANDS OF BLAS
 COULD STILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
 SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/0900Z 21.9N 115.7W    40 KT
  12HR VT     14/1800Z 22.9N 117.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     15/0600Z 23.9N 119.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     15/1800Z 24.4N 121.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  48HR VT     16/0600Z 25.0N 123.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     17/0600Z 25.0N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     18/0600Z 25.0N 129.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$