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 104 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 030857
 TCDEP2
 
 HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
 400 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015
 
 Satellite data indicate that Blanca continues to rapidly
 strengthen as a small eye has become apparent during the past
 couple of hours.  This is consistent with earlier microwave data
 that revealed a small pinhole eye, however there has been no recent
 microwave imagery to examine the current inner-core structure.
 Dvorak Data T-numbers were 5.0 or 90 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but
 with the recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is set at 95
 kt.  This is an increase in intensity of more than 40 kt over the
 past 24 hour period.
 
 Rapid intensification is forecast to continue during the next 24
 hours while Blanca remains over very warm water and in a low shear
 environment.  The statistical-dynamical models (SHIPS, LGEM,
 and Florida State Superensemble) continue to show significant
 intensification during the next day or so, and all of these models
 bring Blanca to major hurricane status very soon. The official
 forecast is very close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance during the first
 2 to 3 days.  After 72 hours, increasing southerly wind shear and
 cooler waters are expected to cause fairly quick weakening as
 Blanca approaches the Baja California peninsula.
 
 Blanca has been nearly stationary overnight.  Little motion is
 expected today, but a north-northwestward motion is forecast to
 begin on Thursday when a mid-level ridge builds to the northeast
 of the hurricane.  Blanca is expected to accelerate north-
 northwestward in south-southeasterly flow between the aforementioned
 ridge and a mid-level trough off the west coast of California.  The
 track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there
 remains some differences in the forward speed of the hurricane.  The
 GFS remains the fastest of the dynamical models, while the ECMWF is
 the slowest.  The NHC forecast is again close to the previous
 advisory and near the multi-model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0900Z 12.6N 104.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  03/1800Z 12.5N 104.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  04/0600Z 12.9N 104.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
  36H  04/1800Z 13.7N 105.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
  48H  05/0600Z 15.1N 106.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
  72H  06/0600Z 18.1N 108.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
  96H  07/0600Z 21.1N 109.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  08/0600Z 24.0N 110.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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