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 490 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 021432
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015
 
 Blanca is intensifying.  Geostationary imagery shows a CDO and
 prominent banding features, and a 0828Z AMSR-2 image from GCOM-W1
 showed a low- and mid-level eye feature.  The latest Dvorak
 estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, and the latest ADT is
 T4.5/77 kt.  The initial intensity is set to 60 kt for this
 advisory.  Given that Blanca has developed the inner-core features
 seen in microwave imagery and the shear is now below 10 kt, the
 cyclone appears to be poised for a period of rapid intensification.
 The NHC forecast is near the highest guidance, showing Blanca
 becoming a major hurricane tomorrow, and conditions appear favorable
 for continued strengthening through 72 hours, when the SHIPS, LGEM
 and FSU Superensemble all show a peak near 120 kt.  However, even
 this forecast could be conservative given that the SHIPS RI index
 shows a 95 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in the first 24 hours.
 The shear increases while the cyclone moves over cooler waters at
 days 4 and 5, which should result in steady if not rapid weakening
 by the end of the forecast period.
 
 Blanca has been moving little over the past few hours, and little
 motion is expected through 36 hours while steering currents remain
 weak.  By 48 hours, a slow northwestward motion should begin as a
 ridge builds to the northeast of the cyclone, and a faster
 northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast on days 4
 and 5.  The track model guidance is in general agreement on this
 scenario, but there continues to be some cycle-to-cycle variability
 late in the period. The multi-model consensus has shifted to the
 right again this cycle at days 4 and 5, but only minor changes were
 made to the NHC track, which now lies to the west of the consensus
 aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/1500Z 13.1N 104.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  03/0000Z 13.0N 104.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  03/1200Z 12.8N 104.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  04/0000Z 12.8N 104.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  04/1200Z 13.3N 105.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
  72H  05/1200Z 16.0N 107.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
  96H  06/1200Z 19.0N 108.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 120H  07/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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