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 081 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 312209
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
 530 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
 
 Visible satellite images this afternoon indicate that deep
 convection has developed over the center of the well-defined low
 pressure system to the south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Therefore the
 system qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being
 initiated at this time.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 300/05.  The depression is located
 in a region of weak steering but with enough ridging in the short
 term for the cyclone to drift generally west-northwestward to
 northwestward through Monday.  In 36-48 hours, a mid-level
 ridge located west of the cyclone could impart an unusual southward
 motion for a day or so.  After that time, global models show
 stronger ridging developing over northern Mexico and the
 south-central United States, which should result in a faster
 west-northwestward or northwestward motion. The official NHC track
 forecast is close to the multi-model consensus (TVCE) throughout the
 forecast period.
 
 Strong northwesterly vertical wind shear associated with the
 outflow of Hurricane Andres should preclude significant
 intensification during the next day or two.  After that time, the
 shear is expected to become northeasterly and decrease
 substantially, while the cyclone moves slowly in a moist
 environment and over very warm waters of around 30 deg C.  These
 factors should lead to a faster rate intensification, perhaps
 greater than what is currently forecast.  The NHC intensity
 forecast is closest to the SHIPS and HWRF models, which show the
 most strengthening of the intensity guidance.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  31/2230Z 12.4N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  01/0600Z 13.1N 103.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  01/1800Z 13.7N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  02/0600Z 13.8N 104.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  02/1800Z 13.3N 104.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  03/1800Z 12.3N 104.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  04/1800Z 12.7N 105.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  05/1800Z 15.0N 107.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain/Pasch
 
 
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