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 267 
 WTNT42 KNHC 161456
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022015
 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
 
 Tropical Storm Bill is nearing the central Texas coast just south of
 Port O'Connor, and the cyclone should move inland shortly. Although
 the satellite presentation isn't terribly impressive, NOAA Doppler
 radar data and SFMR, flight-level, and dropsonde wind reports from
 an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft support an intensity of
 50 kt.  After Bill makes landfall, steady weakening will begin as
 the cyclone moves farther inland over Texas, although the GFS
 suggests that baroclinic forcing will help maintain the
 post-tropical remnants as a distinct entity for a few days.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 305/09 kt. Bill is expected to move
 around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high
 located over the southeastern U.S. during the next day or two. By
 48 hours, the cyclone is forecast to get caught up in the
 mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a turn and acceleration to the
 northeastward to east-northeast. The global and regional models are
 in good agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast is
 very similar to the previous advisory track and a consensus of the
 GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 Although the storm's strongest winds are located very close to the
 center, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are occurring
 well away from the center.  The main hazard from Bill is expected to
 be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and
 eastern Oklahoma over the next day or two.  Please see products from
 your local National Weather Service office for more information on
 the flood threat.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/1500Z 28.2N  96.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  17/0000Z 29.7N  97.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  17/1200Z 31.6N  97.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  36H  18/0000Z 33.4N  97.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  48H  18/1200Z 34.9N  96.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  72H  19/1200Z 36.8N  92.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  96H  20/1200Z 39.3N  87.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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