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 616 
 WTNT43 KNHC 231448
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009
  
 AFTER THE LAST AIR FORCE MISSION INTO BILL....JUST BEFORE 1200
 UTC...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO LOOK A LITTLE
 LESS TROPICAL.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
 105 KT OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT AROUND 1100 UTC.  TYPICALLY THIS
 WOULD SUPPORT A HIGHER INTENSITY OF GREATER THAN 75 KT. 
 HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS...IT IS
 BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR IT TO TRANSPORT STRONG WINDS TO
 THE SURFACE.  GIVEN THAT...ALONG WITH THE DETERIORATION OF THE
 CLOUD PATTERN...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KT.  BILL IS
 EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR SO AND
 GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. 
 GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH A BROADER
 CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE BRITISH ISLES IN 3-4 DAYS.
  
 CURRENT MOTION IS AROUND 045/29.  BILL SHOULD CONTINUE ACCELERATING
 OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT BECOMES WELL EMBEDDED IN THE
 MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS
 LIKELY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF BILL
 INTERACTS WITH THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHEAST
 ATLANTIC.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ONE.
  
 LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING
 THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SWELLS ALONG THE
 EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TODAY.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/1500Z 43.3N  64.0W    75 KT
  12HR VT     24/0000Z 46.3N  59.1W    65 KT
  24HR VT     24/1200Z 49.0N  49.7W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     25/0000Z 50.8N  37.4W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     25/1200Z 52.5N  26.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     26/1200Z 57.0N   8.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     27/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
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