124 
 WTNT43 KNHC 221442
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BILL HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
 ORGANIZED AND THE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE. INITIAL
 INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 85 KNOTS AND THIS VALUE COULD
 BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK BILL THIS AFTERNOON AND
 WILL GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. BILL
 IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH TODAY BUT WITH COLD WATERS
 AHEAD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. IN ABOUT 48
 HOURS...THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AND BY 72 HOURS
 BILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL.
  
 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. BILL IS MOVING
 TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS
 ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH
 AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
 PATTERN SHOULD FORCE BILL TO RECURVE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
 FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY
 PACKED...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE
 FORECAST TRACK BRINGS BILL TO THE WATERS JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
 IN 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED WATCHES AND
 WARNINGS FOR EASTERN REGIONS OF CANADA.
  
 LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
 THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
 WEEKEND...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
 CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
 OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE DETAILS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/1500Z 35.1N  68.6W    85 KT
  12HR VT     23/0000Z 38.0N  68.5W    85 KT
  24HR VT     23/1200Z 42.5N  65.5W    75 KT
  36HR VT     24/0000Z 46.0N  59.0W    65 KT
  48HR VT     24/1200Z 49.5N  49.4W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     25/1200Z 52.0N  24.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     26/1200Z 58.0N   9.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     27/1200Z 63.0N   5.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA