154 
 WTNT41 KNHC 300901
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 4 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005
  
 THE EYE BECAME MORE CLEARLY DEFINED IN GOES INFRARED IMAGERY
 OVERNIGHT AND AT 06Z WAS SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF VERY DEEP
 CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  THE EYE IS SO SMALL...
 HOWEVER... THAT SSMI IMAGERY FROM A 29/0156Z OVERPASS BARELY
 RESOLVED IT.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
 CLASSIFYING AGENCIES AT 06Z INCREASED TO T5.5/102 KT.  SINCE THAT
 TIME THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT... BUT THE EYE IS STILL
 DISCERNIBLE.  THERE IS NOT ANY OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE INTENSITY WAS
 NOT 100 KT AT 06Z... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ALSO SET TO 100
 KT SINCE THE WINDS MIGHT NOT YET HAVE DECREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE
 VERY RECENT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION.  BETA IS THE EIGHTH MAJOR
 HURRICANE OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON... ALTHOUGH GIVEN CURRENT
 TRENDS IT COULD WEAKEN AND REACH THE COASTLINE OF NICARAGUA AS A
 CATEGORY TWO.  THIS SMALL HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY
 DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
 AMERICA.
  
 A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 7 KT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
 OVERNIGHT... AND THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY REASON WHY BETA WILL
 SLOW DOWN SOON... SO LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA IS
 IMMINENT.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BRING THE CENTER OF BETA
 ACROSS NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN FORECAST
 AT LEAST A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EMERGE INTO THE EASTERN
 PACIFIC OCEAN.  SINCE BETA IS SUCH A SMALL HURRICANE AND THE
 TERRAIN OF NICARAGUA SO RUGGED... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL
 FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS OR LESS AND FOR THE
 REMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  IT
 IS POSSIBLE... HOWEVER... THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF BETA IN A FEW
 DAYS COULD AT SOME POINT LEAD TO REGENERATION IN THE PACIFIC.
  
 BETA WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
 AMERICA... PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... LIKELY LEADING TO
 LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WHICH COULD CAUSE
 CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE.  THE TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD CONTINUE WELL
 INLAND AND MANY HOURS AFTER LANDFALL... EVEN AFTER THE WINDS
 ASSOCIATED WITH BETA WEAKEN.
  
 SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA COULD BE
 DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
 GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.
  
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0900Z 13.0N  83.4W   100 KT
  12HR VT     30/1800Z 12.7N  84.3W    60 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     31/0600Z 12.5N  85.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
  36HR VT     31/1800Z 12.4N  86.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$