797 
 WTNT41 KNHC 292033
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005
  
 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
 INVESTIGATING BETA HAVE FOUND MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
 77 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED
 FROM THE AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES IS 979 MB...AND A 10 N MI WIDE EYE IS
 PRESENT.  THE EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN SATELLITE
 IMAGERY...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE EYE AT
 THIS TIME.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION
 OF AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
 
 BETA HAS SWUNG TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST 6-12 HR AND THE INITIAL
 MOTION IS NOW 280/4.  AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE
 HURRICANE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-
 NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HR UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER
 LAND.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
 TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSTION AND MOTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
 THAT THE GFS...GFDL...AND GFDN WANT TO TAKE BETA WEST OF SOUTH INTO
 THE PACIFIC.  GIVEN THAT THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO TURN
 BETA WESTWARD...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THESE
 MODELS...BEING JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC...THE
 OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE IS IMPROVING.  WITH
 THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND THE SMALL EYE...THERE IS STILL A GOOD
 CHANCE OF A BURST OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE
 GFDL MAKES BETA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 12-18 HR...AND IT SEEMS LIKELY
 THAT WINDS WILL REACH 95-105 KT BEFORE LANDFALL.  BETA SHOULD
 WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
 OF HONDURAS IN 72-96 HR.
  
 REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
 CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
 AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
 DAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  IN
 ADDITION...SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA
 MAY GET DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
 OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/2100Z 13.8N  82.3W    80 KT
  12HR VT     30/0600Z 13.9N  83.0W    90 KT
  24HR VT     30/1800Z 14.0N  84.1W    80 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     31/0600Z 14.0N  85.3W    40 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     31/1800Z 14.2N  86.4W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     01/1800Z 14.5N  88.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
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