545 
 WTNT42 KNHC 292039
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
 500 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
  
 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE
 DEPRESSION DURING THE DAY. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL
 ESTABLISHED WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE
 OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER WITHIN RAINBANDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
 INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE
 CENTER IS OVER LAND. BERYL IS FORECAST TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM
 STRENGTH AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
 STREAM BEYOND 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO IMPLY
 THAT BERYL WILL BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 48
 HOURS...AND LATER BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
 CYCLONE. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
  
 THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST...OR 055
 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
 THE WESTERLIES AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORT WAVE
 TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A GENERAL
 NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
 GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
 AND LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE SOUTHERNMOST SOLUTION.
  
 ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY
 NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
 TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
 OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
 OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  29/2100Z 31.8N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  12H  30/0600Z 32.8N  80.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  24H  30/1800Z 34.2N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
  36H  31/0600Z 36.0N  73.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  31/1800Z 37.5N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  01/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA