136 
 WTNT42 KNHC 290258
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
 1100 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
  
 WHILE MOST OF THE CIRCULATION OF BERYL IS INLAND...THE CYCLONE
 CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RATHER SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD IN ADDITION TO
 WELL-DEFINED BANDING AS OBSERVED BY THE WSR-88D RADAR AND SATELLITE
 IMAGERY.  PEAK WINDS IN THIS SYSTEM...NEAR 25 KT...HAVE BEEN
 OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA COASTS
 AS MEASURED BY SOME WEATHERFLOW WEATHER STATIONS.
  
 BERYL IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320/3.  AS A VIGOROUS
 SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE
 CYCLONE...BERYL WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN ABOUT A DAY.
 THE SYSTEM WILL THEN ACCELERATE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE
 NEXT FEW DAYS THEREAFTER.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
 RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
 TVCA CONSENSUS MODEL.
  
 AS LONG AS IT MAINTAINS ITS DEEP CONVECTION...BERYL IS ANTICIPATED
 TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHILE IT IS
 MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. BY WEDNESDAY
 MORNING...BERYL SHOULD BE REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AGAIN. THERE
 IS A NARROW SWATH OF WARM OCEAN WITHIN THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN THE
 COOL SHELF WATERS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BERYL
 HAS ABOUT A DAY OF TRAVERSING THE GULF STREAM WHILE THE VERTICAL
 SHEAR IS MODERATE TO ALLOW SOME REINTENSIFICATION BACK TO A
 TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO A BLEND
 OF THE LGEM STATISTICAL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
 TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED BY THE FSU
 CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS. ABSORPTION OF BERYL INTO A LARGER
 EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS INDICATED AFTER FOUR DAYS CONSISTENT WITH
 THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THAT
 BERYL MAY BECOME THE DOMINANT VORTEX AND REMAIN INTACT LONGER.
  
 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY
 RAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
 SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  29/0300Z 30.8N  83.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  12H  29/1200Z 31.3N  83.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  24H  30/0000Z 32.1N  81.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  36H  30/1200Z 33.2N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  48H  31/0000Z 34.6N  76.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
  72H  01/0000Z 37.5N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  02/0000Z 40.0N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
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