863 
 WTNT42 KNHC 270831
 TCDAT2
  
 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
 500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
  
 BERYL STILL HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH
 THE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN A RING ABOUT 60-70 NM FROM THE
 CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A ST 3.0
 CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. WHILE MICROWAVE AND GOES SOUNDER AIRMASS
 IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE LAST
 24 HOURS...BERYL IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
 LANDFALL. GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION IS STILL TRANSIENT AND THE
 CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
 COOLER SHELF WATERS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY
 PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BERYL WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 36 HOURS AS
 IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE
 CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER AFTER 72 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL
 INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS BERYL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BY THE
 END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
 THE LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/09...AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO
 TURN MORE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE
 WESTWARD TURN TODAY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THEN SLOW DOWN
 AFTER LANDFALL AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THERE IS STILL A
 LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAR WESTWARD BERYL
 WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA OR SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE GFS
 AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SITUATED FARTHEST EAST. AT 36
 AND 48 HOURS...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
 WEST...BUT REMAINS BETWEEN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. IN THE
 LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
 BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO HOW QUICKLY BERYL WILL RECURVE AHEAD OF A
 MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER ECMWF HAVE BOTH
 TRENDED CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND TOWARD THE TVCA CONSENSUS. THE NHC
 FORECAST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...LYING
 BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT
 DAYS 4 AND 5.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  27/0900Z 30.5N  78.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  27/1800Z 30.4N  80.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  28/0600Z 30.5N  81.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
  36H  28/1800Z 30.8N  82.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  48H  29/0600Z 31.2N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  72H  30/0600Z 33.0N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  96H  31/0600Z 36.0N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 120H  01/0600Z 40.0N  62.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS