720 
 WTNT42 KNHC 260850
 TCDAT2
  
 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
  
 THE CENTER OF BERYL IS EXPOSED ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE REMAINING
 DEEP CONVECTION. OVERALL...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW
 HOURS AS THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. HOWEVER...
 SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION REMAIN SUBTROPICAL 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
 SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 40 KT. BERYL IS
 STILL ENTANGLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
 SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH AND
 EAST. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
 DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR
 THE CENTER...IT COULD LIFT THE TROPOPAUSE AND ERODE THE UPPER-LEVEL
 LOW...ALLOWING BERYL TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TROPICAL STRUCTURE
 BEFORE LANDFALL AS SEEN IN FIELDS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS. AFTER
 LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO DEPRESSION STATUS...WITH
 SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES BACK
 OVER WATER. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
 FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
  
 OVERNIGHT THE CENTER OF BERYL HAS SLOWED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
 ESTIMATE IS 255/04. AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE
 WEEKEND...BERYL SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR
 SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND TURN WESTWARD AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE
 COAST ON SUNDAY. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN
 UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS THE NHC TRACK
 HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE NEW TVCA MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
 INCREASES REGARDING HOW FAR INLAND BERYL WILL MOVE AND HOW QUICKLY
 IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
 INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE MODEL SPREAD APPEARS TO
 BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH BERYL WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
 INLAND...AS A SHALLOWER WEAKER CYCLONE WILL NOT BE PICKED UP AS
 QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW
 MORE WESTWARD PROGRESS...MORE WEAKENING...AND ARE SLOWEST WITH THE
 NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. AT THE OTHER EXTREME...THE ECMWF DOES NOT
 MOVE BERYL AS FAR INLAND...MAINTAINS A DEEPER CYCLONE...AND
 ACCELERATES IT NORTHEASTWARD MUCH FASTER. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
 NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN
 THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE.
 
 THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON A 0226
 UTC ASCAT PASS.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/0900Z 32.3N  75.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  26/1800Z 31.8N  76.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  27/0600Z 31.0N  78.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  27/1800Z 30.6N  80.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  28/0600Z 30.6N  81.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
  72H  29/0600Z 31.0N  83.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  96H  30/0600Z 32.0N  80.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 120H  31/0600Z 34.5N  75.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN