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 397 
 WTNT43 KNHC 060241
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 05 2014
 
 Bertha briefly became devoid of thunderstorm activity late
 this afternoon, however a new burst of deep convection has
 developed to the northeast of the center this evening.  The initial
 wind speed remains 45 kt and is based on a Dvorak classification of
 T3.0 from TAFB.  The vertical shear over Bertha has increased to
 more than 40 kt and is expected to increase even further by
 Wednesday.  Despite the shear, little overall change in strength is
 predicted during the next 24 hours since Bertha will transform into
 an extratropical low and gain some energy from baroclinic processes
 during that time.
 
 The latest fixes indicate that Bertha has turned northeastward
 with a motion of 045/20 kt.  The cyclone should continue
 northeastward during the next 48 hours ahead of a mid-latitude
 trough that is moving off the northeast United States coast.  Later
 in the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone is predicted to
 move east-northeastward to eastward in mid-latitude westerly flow
 over the North Atlantic.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/0300Z 37.5N  68.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  06/1200Z 39.5N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  07/0000Z 42.2N  58.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  07/1200Z 45.0N  52.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  08/0000Z 47.3N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  09/0000Z 48.5N  33.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  10/0000Z 48.5N  17.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  11/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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