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 943 
 WTNT43 KNHC 041439
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014
 
 In spite of its unimpressive appearance on satellite imagery, with
 scant evidence of banding features and relatively disorganized deep
 convection, aerial reconnaissance data indicate that Bertha has
 intensified into a hurricane.  Flight-level, dropsonde, and SFMR
 winds from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes support an
 intensity of 70 kt for this advisory.  Bertha does have well-defined
 anticyclonic upper-level outflow over the eastern and southern
 portions of the circulation.  Recent infrared imagery shows warming
 cloud tops, so the intensity is probably leveling off.  Dynamical
 guidance predicts a very large increase in shear beginning in 24-36
 hours, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin around that time.
 In about 72 hours, the global models show the cyclone interacting
 with a baroclinic zone in the vicinity of Newfoundland, so the NHC
 forecast shows Bertha becoming extratropical by that time.
 
 Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
 motion is now 360/15 kt.  The track forecast remains relatively
 straightforward.  Over the next couple of days, Bertha should turn
 toward the northeast and accelerate in the flow between a
 mid-tropospheric anticyclone over the southwestern Atlantic and a
 broad trough moving off the United States east coast.  Later in the
 forecast period, the cyclone should continue moving quickly to the
 northeast or east-northeast within the mid-latitude westerlies.
 The official forecast track is not much different from the previous
 one, and close to the dynamical model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/1500Z 27.6N  73.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  05/0000Z 30.0N  73.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  05/1200Z 33.4N  72.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  06/0000Z 36.3N  69.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  06/1200Z 39.0N  65.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  07/1200Z 45.0N  55.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  08/1200Z 49.0N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  09/1200Z 49.0N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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