279 
 WTNT42 KNHC 191451
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  66
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008
  
 BERTHA IS STILL A HURRICANE...EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOW WELL PAST 40
 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND OVER RATHER CHILLY SEA-SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT AROUND 0820Z PRODUCED
 25-KM-RESOLUTION RETRIEVED WIND SPEEDS AS STRONG AS ABOUT 60 KT IN
 DEEP CONVECTION...AND THESE COULD CERTAINLY BE UNDERESTIMATES. 
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z REMAINED 65 KT...AND THAT IS THE
 ADVISORY INTENSITY.  BERTHA'S LONG LIFE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
 PROBABLY NEARING ITS END...HOWEVER...SINCE IT IS SO QUICKLY GAINING
 LATITUDE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR BERTHA TO BE AN
 EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY
 A LARGER SYSTEM IN LESS THAN THREE DAYS.
 
 THE HURRICANE IS RACING ALONG AT 035/22...AND THE FORWARD SPEED WILL
 PROBABLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE
 ENTERS THE FULL-BLOWN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS
 IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING WHEN STEERING
 CURRENTS ARE THIS WELL-DEFINED.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS RIGHT ON
 THE PREVIOUS ONE.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/1500Z 43.1N  45.4W    65 KT
  12HR VT     20/0000Z 45.9N  42.6W    60 KT
  24HR VT     20/1200Z 50.5N  37.7W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     21/0000Z 55.7N  31.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     21/1200Z 60.8N  24.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     22/1200Z...ABSORBED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB