644 
 WTNT42 KNHC 190243
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  64
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
 1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008
  
 CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF BERTHA'S EYE HAS WEAKENED DURING
 THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
 UNCHANGED...SO BERTHA REMAINS A 65 KT HURRICANE.  BERTHA IS NOT 
 EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE MUCH LONGER AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER
 PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WITHIN THEN NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AS BERTHA 
 BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 24-36 HOURS. 
 
 BERTHA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A FORWARD SPEED
 OF ABOUT 22 KT.  BERTHA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A NORTHEAST
 HEADING DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
 TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER.  HOWEVER...THE
 NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT IS AHEAD
 OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE FORECAST 34 KT WIND RADII WERE
 EXPANDED OUTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
 WITH A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/0300Z 39.5N  48.8W    65 KT
  12HR VT     19/1200Z 42.0N  46.0W    60 KT
  24HR VT     20/0000Z 45.4N  42.1W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     20/1200Z 50.2N  37.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     21/0000Z 55.4N  32.1W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     22/0000Z 63.5N  20.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     23/0000Z...ABSORBED 
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN