076 
 WTNT42 KNHC 091440
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2008
  
 BERTHA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING AND THE EYE APPEARS
 TO BE REFORMING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON 1200Z
 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS BUT BERTHA LOOKS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
 STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING.
 IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
 STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM. HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS
 INTENSITY MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OR EVEN WHEN
 REINTENSIFICATION MIGHT OCCUR. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND IN THE
 SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES SOONER
 RATHER THAN LATER AND SHOWS BERTHA STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST
 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BERTHA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS BUT
 WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR MAKING IT UNCLEAR WHETHER
 INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST CONTINUES THE PREVIOUSLY SHOWN TREND OF SLOW WEAKENING. AS
 THE ABOVE SHOWS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE...300/10.  BERTHA SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW TURN NORTHWARD
 DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
 CURRENTLY NEAR BERMUDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A 500 MB
 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  BEYOND 72
 HOURS...THE TRACK BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE IS
 NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PICK UP THE CYCLONE.  RATHER...IT LEAVES
 BERTHA BEHIND IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SLOW
 AND ERRATIC MOTION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.  TRACK MODELS HAVE
 NOT DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  AS A RESULT...THE
 NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND LIES WEST
 OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER BERTHA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
 BERMUDA.  INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
 PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/1500Z 24.2N  57.5W    65 KT
  12HR VT     10/0000Z 24.7N  58.5W    70 KT
  24HR VT     10/1200Z 25.9N  59.7W    75 KT
  36HR VT     11/0000Z 27.2N  60.6W    75 KT
  48HR VT     11/1200Z 28.3N  61.1W    70 KT
  72HR VT     12/1200Z 30.0N  61.5W    70 KT
  96HR VT     13/1200Z 31.5N  61.5W    65 KT
 120HR VT     14/1200Z 33.5N  60.5W    60 KT
  
 $$
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