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 090 
 WTNT42 KNHC 071432
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
 1100 AM EDT MON JUL 07 2008
  
 BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE DURING
 THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A DISTINCT EYE NOW APPARENT.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE
 VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  IN THE SHORT-TERM...THERE ARE NO
 APPARENT ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WHICH WOULD INHIBIT FURTHER
 INTENSIFICATION TODAY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR
 BERTHA TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BEYOND 36 HOURS AS THE GLOBAL
 MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
 TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE GFS FORECAST THE MOST
 UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH BERTHA ESSENTIALLY RUNNING INTO THE
 TROUGH.  NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL
 MODELS...WHICH INCLUDE ATMOSPHERIC INFORMATION FROM THE GFS...SHOW
 CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING.  MEANWHILE...THE UKMET...GFDL...AND HWRF
 MODELS SHOWS A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DELAY WEAKENING
 UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE HIGHER SHEAR SCENARIO INDICATED BY
 THE GFS BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN BERTHA AS FAST AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM
 MODELS. 
  
 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HURRICANE'S HEADING DURING THE
 LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE ESSENTIALLY
 UNCHANGED... 285/13.  HOWEVER...BERTHA IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER A
 WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
 TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AND A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE
 MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS EVOLUTION...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
 SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS ON WHAT LONGITUDE BERTHA WILL TURN NORTH.
 WHILE THE DEGREE OF THE TURN HAS IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS REGARDING
 POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO BERMUDA...IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF
 BERTHA WILL ACTUALLY THREATEN THAT ISLAND.  HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN
 BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  THE NEW
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE TRACK
 MODEL CONSENSUS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/1500Z 19.6N  51.3W    80 KT
  12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.3N  53.3W    90 KT
  24HR VT     08/1200Z 21.2N  55.5W    90 KT
  36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.1N  57.5W    85 KT
  48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.2N  59.2W    80 KT
  72HR VT     10/1200Z 25.5N  62.0W    75 KT
  96HR VT     11/1200Z 28.5N  63.5W    70 KT
 120HR VT     12/1200Z 31.0N  63.5W    70 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER RHOME
  
 
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