618 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 192032
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011
 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
  
 THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
 SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER POSITION.  TWO CONVECTIVE
 BANDS ARE ALSO NOTED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON THE 1800 UTC DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BEATRIZ SHOULD HAVE AN
 OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 36
 TO 48 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SITUATED OVER VERY WARM
 WATERS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER
 SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY BY DAYS 4 AND 5
 WHEN RAPID WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
  
 BEATRIZ HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
 PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LONGER TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
 300/10. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
 ON THE STEERING PATTERN...SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF
 THE CYCLONE WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
 MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
 BEATRIZ TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO
 AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST. BY 72 HOURS THE COMBINATION OF
 A WEAKENING CYCLONE AND THE RIDGE RE-STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH
 SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST.
 THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
 LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION.  AFTER THAT
 TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE
 PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
  
 THE NEW FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING
 FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  19/2100Z 14.3N 101.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  20/0600Z 15.3N 102.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  20/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  21/0600Z 17.8N 103.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  21/1800Z 18.9N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  22/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  23/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  24/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN