149 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 042040
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number  18
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 04 2019
 
 The eye of Barbara has gradually been filling in during the day,
 with eyewall convection eroding somewhat on the south side.  In
 addition, the cloud pattern has become elongated to the north -- a
 sign that southwesterly shear is affecting the circulation. A blend
 of the satellite intensity estimates, with more weight on the
 subjective estimates, gives 85 kt as the initial wind speed. Barbara
 should rapidly weaken over the next day or so due to cool waters,
 increasing southwesterly shear, and dry air entrainment. The cyclone
 is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm by 24 hours and
 degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone near or just before it
 enters the Central Pacific basin. The new NHC prediction is similar
 to the previous one, close to the model consensus.
 
 Barbara continues moving northwestward, or 310/10 kt. This general
 path is forecast until tomorrow when a mid-level ridge builds to
 north of the cyclone, causing a slightly faster west-northwestward
 motion.  As Barbara weakens, it should turn westward and accelerate
 on Saturday, steered by the low-level flow. The overall model
 guidance envelope is virtually unchanged from the previous one, and
 no significant changes were made to the forecast. All of the models
 dissipate the cyclone east of the Hawaiian Islands, although the
 remnants could move across that area in 4-5 days.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/2100Z 16.7N 130.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  05/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  05/1800Z 18.6N 134.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  06/0600Z 19.1N 136.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  06/1800Z 19.2N 139.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  07/1800Z 18.9N 145.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  08/1800Z 18.9N 152.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake