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 549 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 301446
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013
 800 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013
  
 FINDING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN A REAL
 CHALLENGE THIS MORNING.  THE CENTER OF ROTATION THAT IS EVIDENT ON
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WIND
 OBSERVATIONS FROM STANDARD AND AUTOMATED MEXICAN WEATHER STATIONS. 
 IN FACT...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER
 EVEN EXISTS.  HOWEVER...WE THINK THE MOST PRUDENT ACTION AT THIS
 TIME IS TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION UNTIL ADDITIONAL
 VISIBLE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA BECOME AVAILABLE.  THE CURRENT
 ADVISORY POSITION IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE WIND
 DATA.    
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 310/3.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR INTO THE
 GULF OF MEXICO.  SINCE THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME VERY DISRUPTED
 AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR FROM LAND...THE FORECAST SHOWS THE
 SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN A DAY OR SO.
 
 ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A
 SERIOUS CONCERN.   DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
 OF BARBARA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
 PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A
 HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE
 OVER THIS REGION. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  30/1500Z 18.5N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  12H  31/0000Z 18.7N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  31/1200Z 18.8N  96.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
  
 
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