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 761 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 300835
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013
 200 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013
  
 BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD OVER
 SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. BASED ON THE TIME SPENT OVER LAND AND THE
 LACK OF ANY REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SEVERAL
 HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
  
 GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATING
 SOON...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THAT
 REASONING. A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST AT 12 HOURS OVER THE EXTREME
 SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DISSIPATION SHOWN AT 24 HOURS.
 HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION NORTH OF
 THE CENTER IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF ORGANIZED DEEP
 CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ARE MAINTAINED...BARBARA
 COULD EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
 THIS MORNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THIS OCCURS...THE NEXT ADVISORY
 WOULD BE ISSUED WITH ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND
 HEADERS.
 
 DESPITE THE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO
 BE HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. DISTURBED
 WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA IS LIKELY
 TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS
 FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  30/0900Z 17.8N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  30/1800Z 18.7N  94.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN
  
 
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