330 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 292044
 TCDEP2
  
 HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013
 200 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013
  
 BARBARA RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIAPAS AS A
 CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. 
 THIS IS THE EASTERNMOST LANDFALL LOCATION FOR AN EASTERN NORTH
 PACIFIC HURRICANE SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966.  IT IS ALSO
 THE SECOND-EARLIEST HURRICANE LANDFALL IN THE RELIABLE RECORD.
 
 BARBARA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AS IT CROSSES THE ISTHMUS OF
 TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND MOVE INTO A REGION OF
 WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A
 DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
 DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND
 BARBARA WILL PROBABLY BE REDUCED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 12
 HOURS OR SO...AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT ENTERS THE GULF
 OF MEXICO.  THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE SO DISRUPTED
 BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THAT REGENERATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
 OF MEXICO IS UNLIKELY.  IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
 GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS
 LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE GULF...WHICH WOULD ALSO DISCOURAGE
 REDEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED...SHOULD BARBARA
 MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF
 MEXICO...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME.
 
 EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...DISTURBED WEATHER
 ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA OR ITS REMNANTS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER
 SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WOULD
 EXACERBATE AN ALREADY DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT OVER THE REGION.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  29/2100Z 16.2N  94.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
  12H  30/0600Z 17.3N  93.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  24H  30/1800Z 18.8N  94.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  31/0600Z 19.3N  94.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH