089 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 011453
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007
 800 AM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA HAS BECOME BETTER
 DEFINED THIS MORNING AS CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED.
 A 1220 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS LEAVES LITTLE DOUBT THAT A WELL-DEFINED
 SURFACE CIRCULATION EXISTS AND IN FACT...IT INDICATES THAT BARBARA
 IS ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL STORM.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/4. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS
 BECOMING A DEEP SYSTEM AGAIN...THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
 THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY STEER THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD. 
 THE UMKI...NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND GFDL FIELDS SHOW LANDFALL IN
 EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS REQUIRES
 ANOTHER EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
 BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND
 NOGAPS SOLUTIONS...BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL. THE NEW OFFICIAL
 FORECAST SHOWS LANDFALL OVER EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA IN ABOUT
 36 HOURS.  THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
 FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO.
  
 BARBARA IS LOCATED OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEER ENVIRONMENT.
 ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BUT HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION
 IS THE QUESTION.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW GRADUAL
 INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS DOES THE NHC INTENSITY
 FORECAST.  THEREAFTER....INTERACTION WITH LAND COULD HALT ANY
 ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/1500Z 13.0N  94.5W    40 KT
  12HR VT     02/0000Z 13.3N  93.9W    45 KT
  24HR VT     02/1200Z 13.9N  93.5W    50 KT
  36HR VT     03/0000Z 14.6N  93.3W    50 KT
  48HR VT     03/1200Z 15.4N  93.2W    50 KT
  72HR VT     04/1200Z 16.6N  93.3W    25 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA